Huge changes to railway timetables could see house prices in some commuter towns tumble by as much as 15%, a number of high-profile property professionals have warned.
The timetable changes, which came into effect in mid-May, have seen roughly a quarter of all stations in the UK lose services, with an average of six trains a day being cut from each. As many of the worst hit towns are classed as ‘commuter towns’ and located just outside the country’s major cities, house prices could fall as they lose their ‘commutability’ and appeal.
Where are the worst hit areas in the UK?
There has been a reduction in services stopping at certain stations of up to 40%, and commuter towns around London have been some of the worst affected locations.
Flitwick, Preston Park and Leagrave East have all seen more than a third of their daily services slashed, meaning commuters in these areas are left with a dilemma - move closer to the capital or find an alternative way to get to work. Kent, Sussex, Surrey and the other home counties could feel the worst of the timetable squeeze. As ever greater strain is placed on the services which are continuing to run, commuter-belt towns which were once seen as highly desirable are likely to be the hardest hit in the long term.
If you take house values by postcode, those situated within easy distance of a well-served station have regularly commanded a premium. People have always been willing to pay over the odds for a property in a nice residential area if there are strong rail links to major cities, with the ability to commute often high on the priority list for house-hunters both around the capital and close to other major cities. The commutability of an area has long influenced house prices in the UK, but with services being cut, homeowners could see the value of their property fall in the coming months.
Unaware that these changes were on the cards, those who invested in commuter belt properties could have woken to a nasty shock recently, as the value of their homes took an overnight tumble when these changes were enforced.
The south-west of the country is said to be the region hardest hit by the shake-up, with 35% of all stations seeing significant cuts to their scheduled services. While many stations across the country will benefit from an increase in high-speed peak time trains, this will often be at the expense of cheaper off-peak services.
What could this mean for the property market?
The changes to the railway timetables could affect more than 100,000 train services, and cuts could have a detrimental impact on property prices up and down the UK. Property experts have warned that houses in the once attractive commuter belt could see their value fall by as much as 15% as a result of the service cuts, with potential buyers looking to move to areas with better railway links or to move closer in to the major cities.
Areas such as Lewes, Brighton and Canterbury - once seen as being within easy commutable distance of the capital - could be hard hit by the changes. According to Mark Hayward, the Chief Executive of the National Association of Estate Agents, many homeowners have been left in a predicament because they bought their houses without any warning that services could change.
Mr Hayward said that the desirability of a commuter town is inextricably linked to the frequency and reliability of trains. He added that those towns that had a good train service served saw properties selling at a premium, so he felt that prices could fall by up to 15% in the worst cases. He argued that the timetable changes needed to be reviewed because people have purchased properties based on an inaccurate understanding of train services.
Network Rail executives have been quick to defend their timetable changes, saying that commuters will enjoy more high-speed trains and it will create a more regular service for many.
Winners and losers
Of course, for every homeowner who has found themselves on the losing side of the Network Rail shake-up, there will always be some who reap the rewards.
Those already living closer in to London, for instance, could find they are now better served by train services than they were before the changes were introduced. Among the winners were those living along the City Thameslink line, with Finsbury Park, Blackfriars and Farringdon all seeing their services increase.
While people living further outside London have been adversely affected by the timetable upheaval, those a little further in could find sold property prices receive a boost as they suddenly become more attractive to commuters.
It also means that buyers could be in a stronger negotiating position, as a significant fall in house prices could mean there is more stock to choose from. For those who do not rank commutability high on their wish list, the fall in house prices in commuter belt towns could mean their budgets stretch further as sellers are keener to seal a deal.
Nethouseprices predicts that those wishing to sell up and move closer to work will certainly feel the pinch in the coming months. With travel costs already increasing at an alarming rate, they may be stung by the double whammy of higher rail fares and a fall in the value of their properties, which could make moving unaffordable for some.
On the whole, the Network Rail timetable changes look set to have a negative impact on house prices in the UK. At a time when sold house prices have been either stagnating or falling, this will be an unwelcome development for many people looking to sell their homes in the near future. Further factors such as Brexit and changes to the tax laws mean these could be a challenging few months for homeowners right across the country. To stay up to date with the property market and find out how your home’s value might be affected, check in with Nethouseprices for all the latest property news.
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